美國(guó)又有一家銀行面臨破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，第一共和國(guó)銀行已經(jīng)走到了破產(chǎn)邊緣，被他拖垮的還有眾多銀行資本家，就在上個(gè)月，美國(guó)11家大型銀行才剛剛向第一共和國(guó)銀行注入300億美元存款，如果第一共和國(guó)銀行破產(chǎn)，還不知道會(huì)不會(huì)有進(jìn)一步的連鎖反應(yīng)。
起初大家認(rèn)為美國(guó)加息是收割全球
美國(guó)加息是眾多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家早在幾年前就已經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)好的，目的是通過加息行為，吸引全球資本回美國(guó)。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，還把這種行為理解為美國(guó)在收割全球的韭菜。比如：針對(duì)中國(guó)，美國(guó)加息可以導(dǎo)致中國(guó)外匯外流美國(guó)；針對(duì)歐盟，可以令美元升值，讓由美元定價(jià)的歐洲必需品——石油和天然氣價(jià)格上漲，起到敲打歐盟的作用；同時(shí)，還會(huì)讓很多小國(guó)家資本外流，本幣信用度下降，讓美元重回霸權(quán)地位。
加息讓美國(guó)騎虎難下，中國(guó)卻是老虎騎士
然而，美國(guó)加息似乎每一腳都踩到坑里。一季度，美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)只有1%，當(dāng)時(shí)通脹率接近6%，美債利息已經(jīng)飆到4.3%，如果要靠加息抵消通脹率，得加息到6%，這簡(jiǎn)直是天方夜譚。美國(guó)為啥這么倒霉呢？
第一個(gè)坑，中國(guó)宣布數(shù)字貨幣交易非法，這導(dǎo)致全球數(shù)字貨幣市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩，各種數(shù)字貨幣暴跌，暴跌導(dǎo)致鎖定在數(shù)字資產(chǎn)的美金，回流美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，加劇通貨膨脹。
第二個(gè)坑，中國(guó)反其道行之，別國(guó)跟著加息，中國(guó)反而宣布降準(zhǔn)，不僅不收攏資金，反而釋放資金，進(jìn)一步導(dǎo)致美元回流美國(guó)。
第三個(gè)坑，中國(guó)和日本持續(xù)拋售美債，美債都被美國(guó)人自己接盤了，一邊是高昂的利息要支付，另一邊是依然壓不住的通貨膨脹，這些壓力就都到了銀行業(yè)這里了。
加息引發(fā)銀行業(yè)盈利能力下降
加息意味著大家不用投資，只需要把錢放在銀行里就可以盈利。通脹又讓企業(yè)投資利益受損，進(jìn)一步收緊投資，不貸款了。這樣一來(lái)，銀行拿著大筆資金要支付儲(chǔ)戶的利息，另一方面，貸款發(fā)放不出去，導(dǎo)致收支不平衡，面臨虧損。所以大量銀行又把錢投入利息高昂的美債，成為了美債的接盤俠。
然而，美國(guó)輿論是不受控制的，關(guān)于銀行虧掉本金的謠言一旦開始傳播，美國(guó)人就開始瘋狂的擠兌。這樣就導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的銀行接連出現(xiàn)問題，之前有硅谷銀行，現(xiàn)在是第一共和國(guó)銀行，故事基本都如出一轍。
中國(guó)不加息，其實(shí)是對(duì)的。不知道有沒有和我一樣是做生意的朋友。此前，我們小微企業(yè)要到銀行貸款，求爺爺告奶奶都不一定能貸到。但是最近，銀行開始給我們企業(yè)主打電話，主動(dòng)推銷貸款業(yè)務(wù)，而且授信額度還不低。不加息，正好是在這個(gè)大家都不怎么敢投資的時(shí)期，降低銀行盈利壓力的正確手段。美式金融學(xué)，這一次，反而沒有顯露出我們中國(guó)人的智慧。
英文版：Why do banks in the United States go bankrupt so easily? Crazy interest rate hikes, bringing down capitalists.
Another U.S. bank is at risk of bankruptcy. First Republic Bank has already reached the brink of bankruptcy, dragging down numerous bank capitalists with it. Just last month, 11 large U.S. banks injected $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. If First Republic Bank goes bankrupt, it is unclear whether there will be further chain reactions.
At first, people thought that the U.S. interest rate hike was to reap benefits from around the world.
The U.S. interest rate hike was predicted by many economists several years ago, with the aim of attracting global capital back to the United States through this action. Many economists also interpret this behavior as the United States reaping benefits from around the world. For example, regarding China, the interest rate hike can cause China"s foreign exchange to flow out to the United States; concerning the European Union, it can cause the appreciation of the dollar, leading to price increases for European necessities priced-in dollars such as oil and natural gas, thereby putting pressure on the European Union. At the same time, it will cause capital outflow from many small countries, lead to a decrease in domestic currency credit ratings, and allow the U.S. dollar to regain its dominant position.
Raising interest rates has made it difficult for the United States to get off its tiger, but China is instead a knight riding on a tiger.
However, the U.S. interest rate hike seems to have stumbled at every step. In the first quarter, U.S. GDP growth was only 1%, while inflation was close to 6% and U.S. bond interest rates had soared to 4.3%. If they were to use interest rate hikes to counteract inflation, they would need to raise interest rates to 6%, which is simply impossible. Why is the United States so unlucky?
The first stumbling block was when China announced that cryptocurrency transactions were illegal, which caused turmoil in the global digital currency market. Various digital currencies plummeted, leading to a flow of US dollars locked in digital assets back into the American market, exacerbating inflation.
The second stumbling block was when China did the opposite of other countries by announcing a reserve requirement ratio cut. Instead of tightening up funds, it released funds, further leading to a flow of US dollars back into the United States.
The third stumbling block was when China and Japan continued to sell off U.S. bonds, which were then picked up by Americans themselves. The pressure of high interest payments on one hand and unstoppable inflation on the other all came down to the banking industry.
Interest rate hikes have caused a decline in the profitability of the banking industry.
Interest rate hikes mean that people don"t need to invest, they can simply earn profits by keeping their money in the bank. However, inflation damages investment interests of enterprises, which further tightens up investment and leads to lower lending. As a result, banks have to pay interest to depositors on one hand but are unable to issue loans, resulting in an imbalance of income and expenses and facing losses. So many banks invest their funds in high-interest U.S. bonds, becoming the buyers of those bonds.
However, the American media is uncontrollable, and once rumors begin to spread about banks losing their capital, Americans begin to frantically run on banks. This results in a wave of problems for U.S. banks, first Silicon Valley Bank, now First Republic Bank, all following similar patterns.
It"s right for China not to raise interest rates. I wonder if anyone else, like me, is doing business. In the past, small and micro-enterprises had a hard time getting loans from banks, even after begging and pleading. But recently, banks have been calling us entrepreneurs to actively promote their loan businesses, and the credit limits are not low. Not raising interest rates is a correct approach to reduce banking profitability pressure during this period when few people dare to invest. The American-style finance, this time, has not shown wisdom like our Chinese.
#美國(guó)又一銀行或?qū)⑵飘a(chǎn)#
